Distributed Solar Production Forecast for the California ISO

California ISO PV Fleet Forecast chart

Forecasting more than 195,000 PV systems…

You’re looking at a sample feed of the PV production forecast received by the California ISO every thirty minutes from SolarAnywhere® FleetView®. The forecast helps the California ISO understand how the PV fleet in California—including more than 195,000 ‘invisible,’ behind-the-meter PV systems—is reducing demand, or feeding power back into the grid. The ISO needs this level of detail to accurately schedule electricity a day-ahead of when it’s needed, and then balance supply and demand in real-time.

…One system at a time

To generate the forecast, FleetView pulls solar forecast data and system specifications for each of the more than 195,000 systems, runs a forecast simulation for each system, then rolls-up the individual forecasts into pre-defined territories and classes for delivery to the California ISO. The process is repeated every thirty minutes, every day, to give the California ISO a near real-time forecast.

Capturing data today for tomorrow’s forecast

To get the best forecast, FleetView relies on accurate, detailed specification data for every PV system in a fleet. California has been capturing that data for the majority of its behind-the-meter installations since 2007, when it implemented PowerClerk® to administer California Solar Initiative (CSI) incentives.

With the CSI incentive program winding down, system specifications for non-incentivized PV systems are no longer systematically captured. Clean Power Research is working to close the gap by helping utilities across the U.S. capture vital PV system specifications at the time of interconnection to support forecasting needs—now and into the future.

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